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Where are the Jobs - 2010
By David Hirsch

With 7 million jobs lost and 15 million people unemployed in the U.S., this recession has ravaged the recruiting space as much as any other. But for those of us who remain, it's time to pick ourselves up and figure out how we are going to make money in 2010. Based on economic conditions, we’ve listed our best guesses on areas that should fare well (opportunities) and those that may be challenged — those that may need to increase hiring and those that may not.

Opportunities:

Anything China. Representing a whopping 83% of the U.S. trade deficit, excluding oil*, China’s production was up 16.1% and retail sales up 16.2% in October. China is the clear winner as we exit this recession. U.S. companies increasingly rely on China to manufacture their products and are also racing to capture market opportunities inside China. U.S. employers will benefit from employees with experience in China-related management, production, sourcing, logistics, human resources and market development.

Discount and Online Retailing. With unemployment at 10.2% and growing and credit tightening in the U.S., don't expect the American consumer to roar back anytime soon. Discount and online retailers have proven to be the big winners in this recession, and this should not let up anytime soon.

Temporary Staffing. As demand turns upward, companies traditionally hire temporary staff to be assured that increasing demand is persistent and predictable before hiring permanent workers. Look for an increase in temporary staffing opportunities across most industries.

Sales, Marketing and Media. As consumer demand begins to rise, businesses will fight hard for it. Look for hiring of highly-charged salespersons, as well as increasing investments in online, television and direct marketing efforts. Sales and marketing hiring opportunities should arise in the product/service companies themselves, as well as within agencies and media companies that provide these services.

Technology. Technology traditionally leads most industries out of a recession, and this one is proving no different. Companies must still increase security and become more competitive and efficient.

Investment Banking. With few exceptions, investment banks were made whole dollar-for-dollar by the U.S. taxpayer during this crisis, and they are already heading back toward record profits and bonuses. Musical chairs seems to be the name-of-the-game in regards to employment situations in this space.

Challenged:

Airlines. As goes the price oil (up), so go the airlines (down). Slow economic growth will continue to pressure their top lines, and sky-rocketing oil prices will destroy their bottom lines. (The price of oil is up more than 100% so far this year and still rising.) Look for more airline mergers, union pressure and possible bankruptcies.

Premium and Non-discount Retailing. Who's paying retail these days? Who's not skimping?

Regional Banks. Unlike their big brothers that were saved by stimulus funds, regional banks are falling left and right. So far in 2009, there have been more than 100 bank failures. Short of mergers and acquisitions, don't expect much growth in this space.

Government. State and local governments don't possess the borrowing power of the federal government to make up for substantial declines in revenue (taxes). With employment taxes declining and small businesses greatly challenged, don't expect your local government to increase hiring anytime soon.

Healthcare. Healthcare should have great growth, but until the U.S. government finalizes a law on healthcare reform, nobody knows how this will develop.


Tell us what you think
What is going on in the industry/industries you are in? We'll include some feedback in next month's RW in Review. The main topic next month is about what companies specifically are doing related to recruiting in 2010. Send us your feedback to feedback@recruitersworld.com.


* Economic Policy Institute, “China dominates U.S. non-oil trade deficit in 2009“, http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/intlpic20090723/, July 23, 2009.


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