After years of slow activity, the recruitment sector is poised for a bona fide hiring surge. Current forecasts call for hiring to pick up in early-mid 2004. National unemployment levels, now at 6.1%, are predicted to fall nearly 0.6% in the first half of 2004, dropping to 5.41% by mid-2004. Though not a hiring frenzy, recruiting does seem to be moving to healthier levels. These changes could significantly increase opportunities for recruiters as companies expand their payrolls. In this article, we review recent economic trends and discuss upcoming opportunities for recruiters in 2004.

The recession officially ended and the economic recovery began a little over two years ago. Since then, the economy has grown steadily, logging a phenomenal 8.2% annual-rate surge in summer and early fall of this year. However, despite a slew of positive indicators, the recovery has been jobless. Offshore outsourcing has slowed US hiring, however, what the trend really reflects is corporate hesitance to create jobs. Though companies are making infrastructure investments, they've been slow to invest in people. As a result, the nation's workforce is still 2.4 million jobs short of the peak achieved in early 2001 despite gains in consumer spending and rising inventories.

Though job creation has been slow to date, economic growth is placing increasing hiring pressure on companies. The levy has already started to crack, and many think the market will fully open in 2004. Moving forward, economists forecast significant job growth in areas where firms have deferred support, namely entry and mid-level jobs. As a result, college students will be among the first to see a significant marked pickup. According to a recent survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers, employers expect to hire 12.7% more graduates in 2003-2004 than they did in 2002-2003. The service sector stands out as a particularly strong area. Projection call for a 22.2% increase in service-sector hiring, with a particularly strong surge in consulting.

IT departments are also poised to increase hiring in 2004. Computer programmers and developers are in high demand, as well as network engineers and security professionals. For the past three years, companies have delayed making IT investments and are now entering a significant upgrade and refresh cycle. Firms everywhere are hiring to support these projects. Activities in the venture-capital market are also picking up. After a two year lull, VCs increased their investment activities in 2003 and are expected to invest strongly in 2004 and 2005. As confirmation of this trend, hiring experts have detected a significant hiring upturn in the Silicon Valley. According to a recent survey by Dice.com, total IT job postings for the Silicon Valley jumped 36% between July and December of this year.

Healthcare is also driving jobs. Due to the mounting medical needs of the baby boomers, hospitals, clinics and home healthcare agencies need to recruit staff members. America still needs nurses. Demand for healthcare administrators is also on the rise. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one of the fastest-growing professions is that of medical records and health information technician. Job opportunities in this field are expected to grow rapidly through 2010 due to increases in the number of medical tests, treatments and procedures scrutinized by third-parties.

Efficient and profitable firms are ultimately those that invest in training and retraining their workforce. Although US firms have had viable reasons to cuts jobs, companies are going to have to make substantial investments in human capital in order to compete in a more robust economy. Recruiters World will continue to track and report on job recovery in 2004. In the meantime, recruiters definitely have much to celebrate in the closing days on 2004.